Complicated versus complex

Several recent stories have caught my attention as they highlight how hard it can be to start or grow an online/hybrid school, particularly in a mainstream district.

One of these, “APS to apply lessons from virtual learning program audit to planning for new online program” is a rather dry headline to apply to a story that is quite negative:

[Arlington Public Schools] created the [Virtual Learning Program] in May 2021 for families who had reservations about resuming in-person school last fall as well as for students who prefer online instruction. But it quickly malfunctioned for a dozen reasons, according to the audit, prompting school leaders to “pause” the program for the 2022-23 school year…

APS lacked a formal plan and necessary time to stand up the program, having just the summer to do so, according to auditor John Mickevice. He said planners did not think through the problems that might arise trying to hire 111 teachers in that same period, amid hiring freezes.

The VLP needed more principals, teachers and specialized staff to meet the needs of students, who were overwhelmingly students of color, English learners and students with disabilities, he said. Program leaders were slow to inform administrators of technology issues and teacher shortages.

The story goes on, and it doesn’t get much better.

Why such challenges in this and other cases, when examples of success are out there to replicate?

It’s in part because many planners don’t fully account for the difference between complicated and complex. Larry Cuban wrote about this several years ago and updated it recently: (emphasis is added below)

What’s the difference between sending a rocket to the moon and getting children to succeed in school? What’s the difference between a surgeon extracting a brain tumor and judge and jury deciding guilt or innocence for a person accused of murder?

Answers: sending a rocket to the moon and surgeons extracting brain tumors are complicated tasks while getting children to succeed in school (or, for that matter, raising a child) and navigating the criminal justice system are complex.

According to York University (Ontario, Canada) business professor Brenda Zimmerman, complicated procedures like brain surgery and rocket launchings require engineer-designed blueprints, step-by-step algorithms, well-trained staff, and exquisite combinations of computer software running carefully calibrated equipment. Think rocket landing on the moon in 1969, doctor-controlled robotic arms doing brain surgery, and the U.S. “shock and awe” invasion of Iraq in 2003.

OK, so complicated stuff is hard. But complex challenges are harder. Why? Back to Cuban:

Complex systems like criminal justice, health care, and schools, however, are filled with hundreds of moving parts, scores of players of varied expertise and independence yet missing a “mission control” that runs all these different parts within an ever-changing political, economic, and societal environment. The result: constant adaptations in design and action…

Blueprints, technical experts, strategic plans and savvy managers simply are inadequate to get complex systems with thousands of reciprocal ties between people to operate effectively in such constantly changing and unpredictable environments. These web-like complex systems of interdependent units adapt continuously to turbulent surroundings.

Let’s put this another way, relating back to the APS article.

It’s really hard to land a rocket on Mars. But Mars doesn’t change its orbit in an unpredictable way once you’ve launched the rocket, and it definitely doesn’t change its orbit because you launched a rocket. Get your algorithms right, and the rocket will land as planned.

But no matter how much planning you do for a new school, you won’t know actual enrollments until you open registration. And you might not plan for the district providing the staff they want to send instead of the staff you need. (Yes that happened in Arlington, see slide 30 of the audit slides.)

Complex issues call to mind the idea that “no plan survives contact with the enemy.” There’s no “enemy” in the case of starting an online school, so you might paraphrase to “no plan survives the first day of school.”

I’m concerned that in the coming school year we are going to see more district online programs disappoint in terms of enrollments and results, and shut down. Definitely not all, and hopefully not most. But still, the shutdowns and failures are likely to get a lot of attention.

It will be valuable to remind policymakers, the media, and ourselves that education is complex—not just complicated. And that is all the more reason to celebrate the successful online and hybrid schools and courses that are serving students well.