Three AI-in-education predictions
For two decades I’ve been skeptical of technology in education. Every time I’ve heard of a new technology that’s supposed to “transform” education, I’ve been skeptical.
A few readers are probably thinking…wait, what? You’re involved in online education, right?
But online education has never been primarily about technology, as most people in our field know very well. Fairly simple technology allows for teaching and learning unbound by time and space constraints. It allows communications and relationships to flourish in new ways. It allows students to learn in ways they desire, and to pursue interests in addition to academics.
Every so often a new technology comes around which is supposed to be transformative. Virtual reality, augmented reality, gamification, and so forth. Some of these are fascinating, but none have been transformative.
AI may be different. For the first time, I believe there’s a realistic chance that technology is going to radically change education.
All the impediments to transformative change still exist. Schools serve multiple purposes in addition to teaching, including providing socialization and day care. District leaders are constrained by school boards, state policies, federal mandates, and so on.
But if AI turns into the tsunami that appears possible, all those impediments are going to be swept away. Think of a dam constraining a river. It holds until it doesn’t, and when it breaks, watch out.
To be clear, I’m not highly confident that I’m right. But it’s a weird feeling to look around after all these years and think “this time seems different.”
And the timing is unclear. Is it three years or ten years from now? I don’t know. But here are three things to watch for that will suggest a major change is underway.
1. Private schools, or other providers, operating in states that have passed education savings accounts that allow parents to tap into public funds, announce that they are making radical shifts in instruction using AI. When I started drafting this post, I didn’t realize that such a school already exists. But it does, and others including public schools are moving to embrace AI in their programs. Obviously, a few examples don’t suggest a transformation. But if it becomes dozens of schools and providers serving tens of thousands of students, then hundreds of thousands, that will be a sign of transformation.
2. Teacher union strikes related to concerns about AI “taking jobs.” We saw it happen with the Hollywood strikes. I suspect in the next three years we will see job actions at least partially related to AI—even in a work environment characterized by teacher shortages.
3. A moral panic about how teens are interacting more with AI bots than with people. This will be the next generation of the panics around social media (which to be clear I believe is a real concern—an issue can have a legitimate basis and create a moral panic.) The signs of moral panic will be articles in major mainstream media, mentions on podcasts, and sessions at conferences. This will be indicative of a transformation because it will suggest that students are comfortable interacting with AI-driven bots, meaning that they will be open to instructional support from AI bots. Justin Bruno of Michigan Virtual suggests Character AI as an example of AI interaction in a non-educational setting that may be indicative of future trends among students.
If none or just one of these occur in the next three years, that will be reason to believe the transformation is not happening, or is slow at best. If all three happen, watch out.
What’s your prediction? If you think that AI is likely transformative, what should we be watching for? If you don’t think AI is going to be transformative, let’s say in five years, why not?
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