Are district online schools closing?
Are district’s online schools closing at significant rates? Based on a recent Education Week article and another from Ed Week’s Market Brief, the answer would appear to be yes. But the reality is more nuanced and in fact, K-12 online learning is growing.
Districts’ Virtual Programs Are on the Chopping Block as ESSER Ends makes the case for significant closures succinctly. After recounting the story of a district online program ending, and the impact on 160 students, the article goes on to explain:
“Families of students in virtual programs in districts across the United States are facing a similar reality, as schools attempt to balance budgets as the federal pandemic relief funds often used to fund the programs expire.
Bolstered by the temporary funding source, many districts across the country opted to keep virtual programs as an option even after they reopened their buildings from pandemic closures, citing sustained interest from families and students. They were typically an option for students who met certain criteria—usually a combination of good grades and a documented need for an alternate schedule, like a job.
But in recent months, districts that maintained their virtual school options have come face to face with a tough reality: The programs cost money at a time when many are facing significant budget gaps, and they typically serve a tiny fraction of their student bodies.”
Are closures like this happening? Definitely yes.
Are these closures as impactful as the article suggests? Almost certainly no.
Why? For many reasons. Let’s start with one example, from Maryland. The headline is:
Frederick County school board eliminates Remote Virtual Program to balance budget.
The article delves into the budgetary issues, and is sympathetic to the students who are in the current program. But the reality is more nuanced than the headline suggests. The district has cut grades 3-5; grades 6-8 remain. More importantly, there is a separate online program for high school students that existed before the pandemic, which continues to offer both supplemental and full-time online learning options.
So, we have one anecdote (Frederick County) that runs counter to the anecdotes in the Education Week article. Do we have any relevant data?
Some, but as usual in the K-12 digital learning space, not as much as we would like. A few pertinent points include:
District online schools and programs are important, but they are not the only online option that students have in most states. Overall, as our research from the 2024 Snapshot documents, online school enrollments have risen. The loss of a district online program can certainly impact students and families, but often the district is not the only option.
Many of these anecdotes confuse emergency remote learning measures with the established online and hybrid schools that existed pre-pandemic. Frederick County is one example; there are plenty of others.
Another theme among the closing programs is that they are serving small numbers of students, usually in the low hundreds, spread across many grade levels. Inherent inefficiencies exist in serving small numbers of students, and these inefficiencies raise the question of whether districts should be taking on the role of providing a full-time online program for a small number of students, if other online school options are available.
Another issue that isn't addressed in these articles, but seems very relevant: many data sets and articles are demonstrating that enrollment in traditional public school districts is down, while enrollment in other options (private schools, homeschooling, charter schools, micro-schools, ESA-funded options, etc.) is up. Many of these options have a digital component. A rather cynical take on the situation is that traditional public school leaders are saying that there's not enough interest in online/hybrid options, while their students and families are demonstrating that there is plenty of interest by choosing these options over their traditional public school.
Finally, the articles—and many districts—appear focused on fully online options. But our many years of data show that a relatively small percentage of families and students want a fully online option—no more than about 2% pre-pandemic, probably a bit higher post-pandemic. For hybrid options, however, there aren’t any data to suggest a cap on interest, and there’s reason to think that if there is a natural cap, it is far higher than the limit on fully online schools.
The bottom line: interest and enrollments in online, and hybrid, schools are higher than ever, even as some district programs—many rooted in the pandemic—are closing.